So, I'm supposed to buy a house, ASAP. I figured I may as well start at the macro level. This post provides some graphs of raw data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on house prices. The site provides summary of analysis and useful index-normalized datasets for comparing between capital cities. I'm not sure what I expect to learn at this level other than to get a macro feeling for trends for my city of interest (Melbourne). I'll drop some qualitative analysis and perhaps may revisit this data once I understand more.
I've used Google docs to generate the graphs in this post, although i found excel must better for playing around with the data.
The following graph summarizes the median Melbourne house price per quarter from early 2002 to late 2010. Adding a linear line of best fit to the data suggests a drop around early 2009 and a more interesting increase through 2010. In fact, the residuals through 2009 and 2010 are large relative to those in the previous 6 years. The last data point is June 2010, suggesting a central tendency that the median price of established house transfers in Melbourne is $500,500. Take the strong upward trend with a grain of salt as their is no adjustment for inflation.
The following graph summarizes the median Melbourne transfers per quarter from early 2002 to late 2010. Adding a linear line of best fit to the data suggests a downward trend with positive fluctuations in the second half of 2007 with generally lower numbers from late 2009. The last data point is from June 2010, suggesting 14,727 established house transfers in Melbourne.
There is a wealth of interesting data in the provided reports from the BoS. For example, the data suggests that the average indexed house price in Melbourne increased +10.8% from the previous year.
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